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ISSN : 1229-6783(Print)
ISSN : 2288-1484(Online)
Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science Vol.17 No.1 pp.169-177
DOI : https://doi.org/10.12812/ksms.2015.17.1.169

Predicting typhoons in Korea

Heejoong Yang*
*Dept. of Industrial Engineering, Cheongju University
†Corresponding Author : Heejoong Yang,
Industrial Engineering, Cheongju University
M․P : 010-2456-8188, E-mail: hjyang57@naver.com
January 20, 2015 March 16, 2015 March 17, 2015

Abstract

We develop a model to predict typhoons in Korea. We collect data for typhoons and classify those depending on the severity level. Following a Bayesian approach, we develop a model that explains the relationship between different levels of typhoons. Through the analysis of the model, we can predict the rate of typhoons, the probability of approaching Korean peninsular, and the probability of striking Korean peninsular.
We show that the uncertainty for the occurrence of various types of typhoons reduces dramatically by adaptively updating model parameters as we acquire data.
Predicting Typhoons, Bayesian Approach, Prior Distributions, Posterior Distributions, Influence Diagrams

국내 태풍 예측

양희중*
*청주대학교 산업공학과

초록

 

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Reference

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